LCM Dawn Patrol – 30.04.13 -ABI-, UBS+, DBk Capital Increase, Vivendi,

(sorry no internet access, so parts missing).

Bonjour,

European shares were set to rise on Tuesday and stay on track for an 11th month of gains, with expectations of a rate cut by the European Central Bank and the continuation of easy U.S. monetary policy boosting sentiment. We’ve reached new highs in Australia and Korea with relatively low volumes as China is still closed.

SX5E Futures: 2673.00y 39.00. Support at 2669 then 2633. Resistance 2692/2701 then 2751

Today, we’ll monitor if the Cyprus parliament agrees with the EU bailout, we’ll see how Mrs Merkel answers to Italy’s new PM plans to lower austerity. And we’ll watch Deutsche Bank rise as its capital increase occurs after 2 years of speculation and it’s time for analysts to upgrade it (Nomura, RBC & JPM so far).

Macro: UK consumer confidence, German retail sales & Unemployment, FR consumer spending, EU CPI, S&P/CaseShiller home price, Chicago purchasing manager and US consumer confidence.

NEWS

DBK capital increase is intended to raise c.€2.8bn in gross proceeds with issuance of up to 90mn new shares from authorized capital excluding pre-emptive rights by way of an accelerated book build offering DB also indicated that it intends to strengthen its total capital structure via the potential issuance of additional subordinated capital instruments of up to €2 billion over the next twelve months. Post the capital increase, assuming issuance of 90mn shares; we estimate -8% EPS dilution for 2013E-15E. Post full dilution, DBK currently trades at 6.0x P/E, 0.7x P/NAV for 11.6% RONAV ex own debt in 2015E. (JPM)

VIVENDI sale of Maroc Telecom to happen in October. Vivendi wants €5bn for its 53% stake, but more realistic valuations would be between €4 and 4.5bn. BBG
Abu Dhabi-UK clean energy investment talks: Abu Dhabi is in talks with the UK government to invest up to £1bn in alternative energy schemes alongside the state-owned Green Investment Bank.
RBS may face SEC Enforcement over mortgage bonds from 2007
Lagardere announced an exceptional dividend of EUR 9 per share
Unilever makes EUR 4.1bn bid to raise stake in Hindustan Unilever. BBG

EARNINGS

Luxottica Revs inline, Net slightly above consensus
Clariant 1Q rev. cont. ops CHF1.53b vs est. CHF 1.51b; Ebitda ex-items cont. ops CHF209mvs est. CHF202.8m.
DB reported stated Q1 13 PBT of €2,414mn, which adjusting for €221mn in costs to achieve and €97mn CVA/DVA gains leads to clean PBT of €2,538mn vs. JPMe clean PBT of €2,386mn and company sourced consensus of €1.6bn stated and €2.0bn clean adjusting for €430mn in restructuring charges in consensus. The main positive delta in the core divisions was PBC which was €100mn better in clean PBT while AWM clean PBT was €16mn better than JPMe and GTB clean PBT was €26mn better than JPMe. CB&S clean PBT was €107mn below JPMe. However in the non-core divisions, NCOU clean PBT was €331mn above JPMe while consolidation and adjustments division clean PBT was €114mn below JPMe.
UBS
1Q investment bank pretax CHF977m vs est. CHF321m. WM Inflows at Highest Since 2007. Basel III CT1 10.1%
Inbev 1Q EBITDA below, EPS beats (1.16 vs 0.99 exp), very weak volume in North America+LATAM, strong beat in Asia.
Fresenius SE 1Q Ebit Misses Est; Confirms FY Forecast
Nokian Renkaat 1Q Earnings miss ests.; sees 1H Weaker from last update. Net income EU63.6m vs est. EU67.8m. Keeps full-year guidance; sees some growth in ’13 net sales, op. profit; sees 1H net sales, op. profit weaker than in ’12
Umicore profit forecast Trails Ests.; 1Q Rev. Drops 2%
Honda shares fell 3.4% when a profit forecast missed analysts’ estimates.

AB InBev 1Q Adj. Ebitda, Organic Rev. Growth Misses Est.
1Q adj. Ebitda $3.43b; est. $3.57b
• 1Q organic rev. growth 1.5%, est. up 5.3%
• 1Q organic own beer vol. down 4%, est. down 0.3%
• 1Q total rev. $9.17b, est. $9.56b

CURRENT STUFF

The EU is considering new rules designed to protect large depositors (>EU R 100k) in the event of future bank failures (all <100k will be protected regardless); the move is aimed at alleviating worries sparked by the Cypriot bailout. Reuters

Japan manufacturing PMIs grow faster: The Markit/JMMA Japan PMI rose to a seasonally adjusted 51.1 in April from 50.4 in March — the fastest rise since March 2012. (Reuters)

Cyprus announces plans to cut down on graft and reform its political system, ahead of today’s vote on the €10bn international bailout. (Financial Times) Greece approved the firing of permanent civil servants in a fast-tracked ‘omnibus’ bill on Monday, opening the way for eurozone officials meeting in Brussels to release a €2.8bn aid tranche the same day. (Financial Times)

Luxembourg to share company bank details: Luc Frieden, finance minister, said Luxembourg was willing to expand the number of accounts covered by new information-sharing agreements with the US and the EU to include global companies. The accords, agreed this month, currently only cover individual taxpayers. (Financial Times)

UPS & DOWNS

AKER SOLUTIONS RAISED TO HOLD VS SELL AT NORDEA
AVIVA RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT SOCGEN
CENTRICA CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT CREDIT SUISSE
DCC RATED NEW BUY AT JEFFERIES; PT EU33
DEUTSCHE BANK RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS REDUCE AT NOMURA
DEUTSCHE BANK RAISED TO OUTPERFORM VS SECTOR PERFORM AT RBC
DEUTSCHE BANK RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN
FEDERAL GRID RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
GEMALTO RATED NEW OUTPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE, PT EU80
GLOBALTRANS RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT BOFAML
INVENSYS RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT SOCGEN
KPN RAISED TO HOLD VS UNDERPERFORM AT JEFFERIES
LIONTRUST ASSET RATED NEW BUY AT NUMIS, PT 225P
MERSEN CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT EXANE
METRO RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS SELL AT CITI
NORTHLAND RESOURCES CUT TO SELL VS HOLD AT NORDEA
PETROLEUM GEO SERVICES RAISED TO STRONG BUY VS BUY AT NORDEA
STANDARD LIFE CUT TO SELL VS HOLD AT SOCGEN
TED BAKER RATED NEW BUY AT JEFFERIES; PT 1,700P
VILMORIN RAISED TO HOLD VS SELL AT SOCGEN

OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP

Asian markets
Nikkei 225 down -59.47 (-0.43%) at 13,825
Topix up +6.13 (+0.53%) at 1,167
Hang Seng up +150.61 (+0.67%) at 22,731

US markets
S&P 500 up +11.37 (+0.72%) at 1,594
DJIA up +106.20 (+0.72%) at 14,819
Nasdaq up +27.76 (+0.85%) at 3,307

European markets
Eurofirst 300 up +6.48 (+0.54%) at 1,203
FTSE100 up +31.60 (+0.49%) at 6,458
CAC 40 up +58.63 (+1.54%) at 3,869
Dax up +58.74 (+0.75%) at 7,874

Currencies
€/$ 1.31 (1.31)
$/¥ 97.89 (97.71)
£/$ 1.55 (1.55)

Commodities ($)
Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.15 at 103.66
Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.12 at 94.38
100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +3.70 at 1,471
Copper (Comex) up +0.90 at 323.45

10-year government bond yields (%)
US 1.67%
Germany 1.21%

CDS (closing levels)
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -1.4bps at 95.29bp
Markit iTraxx Europe -4.88bps at 100.44bp
Markit iTraxx Xover -19.2bps at 407.84bp
Markit CDX IG -1.97bps at 76.28bp

Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit

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