The Dawn Patrol – 28.02.13 – Bernanke/Draghi keep the loose policy. CGG-, AHOLD+,


European market set to open up today as Bernanke and Draghi indicated they will keep the current easing monetary policies running as long as necessary. Asia, copper and oil all up overnight.

Today, we’ll look at the French consumer spending (8:45) and European CPI (11:00). In the US, the GDP and jobless claims will be out at 14:30.

SX5E futures: Support at 2608 then 2578. Resistance 2633 then stronger at 2669. Looks like opening around 2626

Bored with skiing? Surfing? Running? Cycling and running? Wand something you can do with the kids, the wife, the parents and the grand parents?
Try fly fishing (here with a twist of Rock n’ Roll).



Syngenta says USDA has fully deregulated Agrisure Duracade; hybrid seeds containing it will be available in U.S. for 2014 planting season.

Arkema 4Q sales miss estimates but sees ‘strong’ 2013 performance.

Telecom Italia Media said talks for La7 sale continue. BBG

Vivendi to seek EUR 547m French tax rebate and may delay the sale of GVT due to the low bids.

Deustche Telekom 4Q EBITDA misses, sales in line

Telekom Austria FY net EUR 103.8m misses estimates

Veolia Environnement’s net financial debt cut by EUR 3.4b to EUR 11.3b, a year in advance of original target of less than EU12b, co. says in statement. BBG

Essilor 2012 Net EU584M; Analysts Estimate EU596M and dividend plan misses forecast but predicts revenue growth, high operating margin in 2013.

CGG numbers look weak vs Bloomie consensus but in line with the numbers that the company sent (as consensus numbers).

Ahold 4Q Underlying Op. Inc. Beats Est., to Buy Back EU500m/Shrs

Rio Tinto names Chris Lynch as CFO, effective April 18


On Japan

Kuroda’s BoJ nomination confirmed: Haruhiko Kuroda, president of the Asian Development Bank, has been confirmed as the government’s choice to become the next governor of the Bank of Japan, as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe seeks a more aggressive regime to overturn more than a decade of growth-sapping deflation. Abe also announced two nominations for deputy governor: Kikuo Iwata, an economics professor at Gakushuin University in Tokyo, and Hiroshi Nakaso, currently in charge of international affairs at the BoJ. (Financial Times)(Bloomberg)

On Draghi
The President of the ECB gave a speech in Germany last night and reiterated that the ECB is far from considering an exit from its stimulus measures, citing the forecast for below-target inflation. He also emphasised on the ECB’s attempt to repair the transmission [of policy rates] mechanism.

Euro zone governments are discussing ways to help Portugal and Ireland return to the capital markets swiftly and have voiced a preference for delaying the repayment of bailout loans to the two states – Reuters

On bonuses
European bonus caps approved: The European parliament late on Wednesday night secured agreement on a mandatory 1:1 ratio on salary relative to variable pay, which can rise to 2:1 with explicit shareholder approval. The bonus cap would go into effect on January 1, 2014. The effect on the City will be softened by favourable treatment to long-term pay linked to the health of a bank, such as equity or bonds that are written down when an institution fails. (Financial Times)

The $85bn in sequestration cuts look set to commence on Friday as positions hardened on Wednesday between the White House and Republican congressional leaders over the budget crisis. Last-ditch talks to prevent harsh automatic spending cuts will be held on Friday, but expectations on both sides are low that a deal will be reached in time to avert the cuts. (Reuters)


RWE (MS, Chada) Five Reasons to Upgrade – EW to OW, PT €33
While little can offset the weak power outlook, this is now well understood by the market. This, coupled with a compelling valuation and management action on capex makes a convincing investment case. We see five reasons to upgrade to Overweight.


Swedish Match Raised To Buy VS Hold at Berenberg

Red Electrica Cut From Conviction Buy At Goldman, Still a Buy

Sell RWE Ahead of Results, 2013 Targets Could be at Risk: UBS

Petrofac Cut To Sector Perform VS Outperform at RBC Capital

Telenet Group Resumed at Equalweight at Morgan Stanley

Shire Cut To Neutral VS Buy at Nomura


Asian markets
Nikkei 225 up +287.55 (+2.56%) at 11,542
Topix up +20.71 (+2.17%) at 974.43
Hang Seng up +312.53 (+1.38%) at 22,890

US markets
S&P 500 up +19.05 (+1.27%) at 1,516
DJIA up +175.24 (+1.26%) at 14,075
Nasdaq up +32.61 (+1.04%) at 3,162

European markets
Eurofirst 300 up +10.33 (+0.90%) at 1,161
FTSE100 up +55.44 (+0.88%) at 6,326
CAC 40 up +69.57 (+1.92%) at 3,691
Dax up +78.72 (+1.04%) at 7,676

€/$ 1.31 (1.31)
$/¥ 92.26 (92.23)
£/$ 1.52 (1.52)

Commodities ($)
Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.11 at 111.98
Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.26 at 93.02
100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +0.90 at 1,596
Copper (Comex) up +2.65 at 357.15

10-year government bond yields (%)
US 1.90%
UK 1.97%
Germany 1.47%

CDS (closing levels)
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.46bps at 105.59bp
Markit iTraxx Europe -4.07bps at 117.73bp
Markit iTraxx Xover -18.44bps at 454.62bp
Markit CDX IG -2.21bps at 87.25bp

Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit


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