TIMING OF EVENTS:
Turnout to be published 3 times on Sunday + rough projections
Note that low turnout is probably bad for Berlusconi.
to have real good indications.
Mr. Bersani – Socialist. Latest Poll: 33%
Mr. Berlusconi – Center Right. Latest Poll: 28%
Mr. Grillo – Nihilist. Latest Poll: 16%
Mr. Prodi – Center. Latest Poll: 12%
Bicameral with Senate and Chamber having equal law-making powers
Chamber: the coalition that wins the relative majority will
automatically be given 55% of the seats
Senate: the same principle applies, but to each region meaning that
the final result depends on the performance of each major player in each region
and increase risks of fragmentation. 316 seats are at stake so any coalition must gather
158 seats to have a majority to control the Senate
THE RISKS FOR FINANCIAL MARKETS:
Mr. Berlusconi wins straight. 10% odds
A hung Parliament:
The Chamber because of its system should be won by Mr. Bersani and his allies
The Senate: tougher to predict as it is a State by State thing. If Mr Grillo or Mr
Berlusconi gains momentum towards the end, the risk of a hung Senate is real.
Then 2 scenarii: other elections are called or a “grand coalition” is formed. In both
cases, market’s reaction should be on the downside. Odds: 30-40%
-First turnout results today
-First projections tomorrow afternoon local time
-Senate is key: watch 158 as the key number to gain majority
-the risk of a hung Senate is real. In the 30% magnitude according to experts.