The Dawn Patrol – 06.12.12 – On the Fiscal Cliff, Apple, Deutsche Bank. MS US strategy for 2013. Niemeyer dies.

Bonjour,

There won’t be a Dawn Patrol tomorrow. It’s party time tonight.

European futures indicate a flattish, slightly higher opening. It was a roller coaster day for the S&P with a lot of things to worry about at a company level with Apple, Tibco and Altera and at the macro level with the cliff and the Chinese rally. The fiscal cliff is still an issue but both sides now seem ready for compromises… Asian stocks rose after US services and factory orders data beat estimates. The MSCI Asia Pacific was 0.3% higher while the Shanghai Composite lost 0.3% after recording its biggest rise in three months yesterday. Australian S&P 200 pared losses of about 0.3% to be 0.1% lower, after the unemployment rate unexpected fell from 5.4% to 5.2%.
Gold through the 1700 level at $1689 and the EURUSD at 1.3052.
Today, we’ll monitor the Eurozone GDP revision, the ECB, the BoE, the German factory orders, the French unemployment rate and the US jobless claims.
In the auction corner: 11.00 France to sell 2018, 2019, 2027 bonds. Expect lower borrowing costs and good demand…..

Oscar Niemeyer dies at 104.
A clear genius and a communist…

EADS (upgraded by BoA ML) Daimler’s €1.66bn (7.5%) stake sold between €26.25 and €27.25 with the books closing this morning.

GSZ confirms dividend policy (1.50e for 2012, in line with Bbg forecast), reiterate 2012 targets, see rebound in 2015 & cut capex by 30bn by end 2014 BUT no intention to cut Suez Env. Stake.
PPR will sell OneStopPlus in $525m deal
SPM and ENI CFO resign amid Algeria contract probe

UPS said to offer concessions in 13 countries to save TNT deal

NETFLIX: NY Post story suggesting NFLX in talks with other studios for potential content deals
HSBC money laundering fine could total $1.8bn
STANCHART to pay $330m settlement on Iran

Wendel Says NAV Per Share EU106.7 on Nov 27 V EU90.7 Aug 2012

CURRENT STUFF

On the Fiscal Cliff
A rare phone call between President Obama and John Boehner yielded no new public compromises and was not followed by announcement of a face-to-face meeting, which had been anticipated. Tim Geithner said the administration was “absolutely” willing to go over the cliff if Republicans did not agree on tax, and President Obama told a business roundtable he would not negotiate on increasing the country’s debt limit. However a few dozen Republicans signed a letter calling for exploration of “all options” on taxes and entitlement programs, a signal that some rank-and-file members are ready to bargain. (Reuters)(Bloomberg)(Financial Times)

On Apple
Apple shares fell a lot on Wednesday, 6.4% at market close to be precise, which is its biggest fall since December 2008. There was much speculation on what caused the fall; Bloomberg posits it is because China Mobile, the world’s largest mobile carrier, agreed to carry a new Nokia phone which runs Windows 8. Apple hasn’t yet struck a deal with China Mobile. Other theories included a ‘classic technical breakdown’ after the shares failed to sustain a recent rally, and an IDC report saying Apple’s tablet market share has fallen this year. (Bloomberg)(Reuters)

On the Freeport-McMoRan deal
Freeport-McMoRan Putting The McMoRan Back In Freeport-McMoran « Dealbreaker: Wall Street Insider – Financial News, Headlines, Commentary and Analysis – Hedge Funds, Private Equity, Banks http://bit.ly/TGCEgU

On Deutsche Bank
Deutsche books hid $12bn losses, say staff: “Deutsche Bank failed to recognise up to $12bn of paper losses during the financial crisis, helping the bank avoid a government bail-out, three former bank employees have alleged in complaints to US regulators. The three complaints, made to regulators including the US Securities and Exchange Commission, claim that Deutsche misvalued a giant position in derivatives structures known as leveraged super senior trades, according to people familiar with the complaints.” (Financial Times) Analysis of the complaints and the trades they relate to. (Financial Times)

STRATEGY

MS (Parker) US Equity Strategy
A full presentation is available at MS. Ask your representative…

UPS & DOWNS

Aker Solutions PT Raised to NOK120 from NOK116 at RBC Capital
Corio PT Raised 1% to Eu36 at Exane; Kept at Neutral
EADS Raised to Buy VS Neutral at BofAML
Enka Insaat VE Sanayi Raised to Buy VS Neutral at UBS
GDF Suez Cut to Neutral VS Buy at BofAML
Hargreaves Lansdown Cut To Equalweight at Morgan Stanley
Munich Re Cut to Hold from Buy at Societe Generale
Saipem PT Cut to EU45 vs EU57 at Morgan Stanley
Sky Deutschland Cut To Neutral VS Buy at Citi
Tesco PT Raised 3% to 310p at Exane; Kept at Underperform
TF1 Raised to Outperform from Neutral at Exane
Tryg Cut To Equalweight VS Overweight at Morgan Stanley
Whitbread Raised To Outperform VS Neutral at Credit Suisse
Whitbread Rated New Market Perform at Raymond James

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