The Dawn Patrol – 18.10.12 – Nestlé and Remy soft. Akzo big impairment. MS cuts AKE. On China, on Europe… no str ategy (maybe later).

Bonjour,

Looks like European markets will open slightly up today after the good Housing numbers in the US and the strong Chinese retail sales. Miners particularly strong. In the US, tech remains a laggard. An ounce of Gold is worth $1748.27 and you’ll get $1.3097 for 1 Euro. Today, we’ll watch the UK retail sales, the Philly Fed, US initial jobless claims. Many many earnings including MSFT, NOK, GOOG, MS, and many others…

Results. I hate these mornings… (but it improves my copy/paste abilities).

Nestlé misses ests, but confirms outlook.
Nestle 9-month organic sales growth up 6.1%, est. 6.3%, up 6.6% in 2H. Confirms 2012 outlook: organic growth 5%-6%, improved margin, underlying EPS in constant FX

SABMiller 1H Organic Lager Vols. Rise 4%; Est. 4.4%
1H organic constant FX rev. up 8%, rev./hl up by 3%, reflecting selective price increases helped by improved brand mix in most regions. 1H financial performance was in line with expectations

Remy Cointreau looks really light with organic sales of +13.3% vs estimates of +17.7%…

Akzo Nobel Takes EU2.5b Impairment in Paints, 3Q Ebitda Misses.
Akzo Nobel takes EU2.5b non-cash impairment charge against the Decorative Paints unit. 3Q Ebitda EU540m vs est. EU552.3m. Rev. EU4.28b vs est. EU4.23b. Div. EU0.33-shr vs BDVD est. EU0.34. Further restructuring activities initiated to further reduce costs in businesses most affected by economic slowdown. Performance program “on track” to achieve previously announced EU200m Ebitda by end 2012

Actelion 3Q Net Chf94.6m; Analyst Est. Chf79.6m

Ups and Downs.
Arkema Cut To Equalweight VS Overweight at Morgan Stanley
Wincor Nixdorf Raised To Buy VS Neutral at BofAML
Sell Schneider, Citi Says Ahead of 3Q; Risk of Guidance Cut and Schneider Named a Least Preferred Stock at Citi
Air France Added to French Midcap Top Picks at UBS
SKF, Siemens, ABB Exit UBS EU Engineering Most Preferred and Assa Abloy, Alstom Added To UBS Engineering Most Preferred List (I like Alstom).
Neopost downgraded
Thyssenkrupp Raised to Neutral from Underperform at Exane
ENI PT Cut to Eu22.5 VS Eu24 at Goldman; Kept at Conviction Buy and Saipem PT Cut to Eu47 VS Eu55 at Goldman; Kept at Buy

AFTER HOURS

EBAY: Q3 Sales/EPS of $3.4bn/45c vs ests of $3.41bn/54c. Stock down 5% as it forecasts Q4 sales/EPS of $3.85-4bn/66-69c vs ests of $3.94bn/68c. (Not sure it’s easy to read, but you’ll get used to it).

AXP: Amex reaches Sales/EPS of $7.89b/$1.09 vs ests of $7.72b-$8.07b/$1.09. Amex shares down 3% as it was a tad below consensis on the revs side.

XLNX: Xilinx (Semis) 3Q eps beat but guide 4Q lower -1.1% after hours

LRCX Lam Research (Semis – ASML Comp) 3Q revenue in line, margins beat +1.8% after hours

CURRENT STUFF

On China
China Q3 GDP came in at +7.4% YoY (in line) and Sept. IP came in at +9.2% which is slighlty better than expected. Also, the retail sales came i nat +14.2% which was better than the consensus of +13.2%. We’ll monitor the PMIs next week which are more relevant indicators.

On Europe
Our dear European leaders meet again today… No decision to be taken, but they will discuss the road map on the Banking Union and the EMU budget. Nothing much to be expected I guess.

Other Stuff
‘Wizard of Oz’ bows out of Moore Capital – FT.com http://on.ft.com/OK1hI0 (It’s about Greg Coffey’s departure from Moore).

Euro Zone Wants to Limit Cost of a Spain Bailout – WSJ.com http://on.wsj.com/T20kvc

This WEEK END Surf forecasts for Biarritz… (in meters).

Max Kamir

Louis Capital Markets UK,LLP

Authorised and regulated by the FSA and Banque de France

39-41 rue Cambon

75001 Paris

T +33 (0)1 53 45 10 74

E mkamir
I http://www.louiscapital.com

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