US stock rallied especially after General Electric raised forecasts for sales growth. Mixed day in Asia with NKY/KOSPI down on disappointing IP data whereas China keep bouncing ahead golden week on speculation of stimulus (but hold your breath on this). EUR trading higher at 1.293 following positive sentiment about the Spanish budget Otherwise, Moody’s downgrades South Africa & Vietnam, Gold reached new record vs Euro €1375. Today, we can already see that German retail sales for July have been revised down and we’ll look at the EZ CPI at 11:00 and Michigan confidence at 15:55.
Please, enjoy your week end, do the things you like, have some fun and get your running shoes on (and try the Vibram fivefingers while you’re at it). (How Exercise Can Help You Master New Skills – NYTimes.com http://nyti.ms/QzQBeQ)
Germany and France may seek to secure a 27% combined share holding in a company formed from a merger of EADS and BAE Systems in what amounts to a potential deal breaker – FTD
Watch Heineken on Europe’s open – after 2 month tussle it gets go-ahead to take control of Tiger Beer brewer Asia Pacific Breweries
Tesco is poised to announce a “generational” profit fall : Profits are expected to fall 12% in the first half, according to analysts’ forecasts, although the retailer is likely to point to some stabilisation in sales from stores open at least a year – FT
Siemens said preferred bidder for Finmeccanica’s Ansaldo Energia
WOS raised to Buy at DB, Danone cut to EW at Barcap, JPM like VOD citing VZW exposure and reiterate UW on AXA, Holcim & HEI cut to U/P at Chevreux, Krones raised to Buy at Berenberg – Linde, Air Liquide and Syngenta raised to Buy at HSBC whereas JMAT, AKZA, BAS and AKE cut to Neutral. BG Added to UBS’s European Key Call List, Removes Renault.
RIMM: +19% post market – Q2 Sales/EPS better at $2.87bn/-27c vs $2.47bn/-47c. There a was a lot of short interest in the stock, some investors are playing RIMM as a takeover target and, yes, the numbers were better. Should you get in? Please don’t. Yes the stock may rally in the short term on these basis, but it’s still a stinking one. Hardware margins continue to suffer and they will continue to fight on price. They sold more handsets than expected thanks to this and maybe because the BBM app is still attracting some clients. But as the best analyst (AA @ BB) in the industry says this is a hope trade, and look at what happened to Nokia recently.
NIKE. The stock slumped 2.4% to $93.69 as the athletic apparel and footwear maker said gross margin in its fiscal first quarter dropped to 43.5% from 44.3%, the seventh consecutive quarterly decline on a year-to-year basis. Higher inputs costs, mostly for materials and labor, offset benefits from higher prices and cost-cutting efforts. Nike’s profit fell 12% to $567 million, or $1.23 a share, while revenue rose 10% to $6.67 billion from $6.08 billion a year ago. Analysts projected earnings of $1.12 a share on $6.43 billion in revenue. Worldwide future orders, a key indicator of company strength, rose 6% from a year ago.
On the Fed
Jon Hilsenrath: How Bernanke won over the Fed sceptics. (Wall Street Journal)
We still need details and see how Spain can execute on all these measures. The new budget plans for a 8.9% govt spending cut and 43 new laws will be passed to stimulate the economy. Budget deficits targets are 6.3% in 2012 and 4.5% in 2013. These will be really tough to achieve, but investors should be happy with the plan and Madrid emphasises that these were beyond reforms recommended by the EC. Now the key question, is… Will the Germans be convinced by this plan???
Also, we’ll check for Oliver Wyman stress tests results today.
Key Spain/Greece events next 2 months :
Friday Sept 28: Spain to provide details of bank stress tests.
Late Sept: Moody’s review on Spain + possible rating actions (downgrade)
Monday Oct 8/9: ESM due to be operational, EU finance ministers meeting on Greek aid tranche. Greece coalition partners have yet to agree on austerity measures while Troika wants even additional austerity to safeguard targets. Hence the strikes.If Parliament doesn’t approve austerity package, Troika won’t release next tranche. Greece may run out of funds late Oct.
Thur Oct 18/19: EU Leaders Summit.
Sunday Oct 21: Spain Galicia/Basque elections. Galicia is located north of Portugal and birthplace of Spain’s PM Rajoy. Rajoy is sure to want to wait till after these elections to request aid.
November 3/4/5: G20 Finance ministers meeting in Mexico.
Sunday Nov 25: Catalonia snap elections, announced yest. Could delay Spain aid request with ESM further as Rajoy tries to postpone formal aid request until after regional elections.
McDonald’s Employee Horror Stories – Business Insider http://read.bi/STXnZv
Starting this book: Gamification by Design: Implementing Game Mechanics in Web and Mobile Apps: Gabe Zichermann,Christopher Cunningham: 9781449397678: Amazon.com: Books http://amzn.to/Qi3iYn
MS (Carr) EEMEA Strategy
5 reasons to own high and sustainable DY stocks in EEMEA.
By now you should all know that high DY stocks are the ones to own, because there is no yield elsewhere. And the same apllies for EEMEA. I have the list of names, in case you’re interested.
1) Dividends’ share of total equity returns is at record levels, and
2) tends to increase in range-bound markets.
3) DYs are attractive versus bond yields.
4) EEMEA DY,payout ratio and DPS growth are superior to other regions.
5) High yielding stocks are outperforming.
Deutsche Bank Cuts 2013 World Growth Forecast to 3.2% vs 3.5%
Barclays Sees Stronger EUR, Weaker JPY vs USD in 3 Months
Commerzbank Keppel Land in Property Deal With Commerzbank
Barclays Prefers Swiss SMI Index to CAC 40
AXA PT Raised to Eu12 VS Eu10 at JPMorgan; Kept at Underweight
DNB PT Raised to Nok76 From Nok75 at Nomura; Kept at Buy
Aegon Cut to Underperform from Neutral at Exane
BAE Risks Breakup or U.S. Co. Bid if EADS Fails
Airbus’ Says Oct. 10 Deadline Must Be Kept; Germany Considers Buying EADS Shares to Keep Power Balance.
Schneider Software Unit for Utilities Has Breach
SKF Assumed Overweight at Morgan Stanley
Atlas Copco Assumed Equalweight at Morgan Stanley
Sandvik Assumed Underweight at Morgan Stanley
Holcim PT Raised to Chf68 VS Chf58 at Berenberg; Kept at Buy
Holcim Cut To Underperform at Cheuvreux
HeidelbergCement Cut to Underperform at Chevureux
Wolseley Raised to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank
Novo Nordisk Receives First Approval of Tresiba From Japan
BG Added to UBS’s European Key Call List, Removes Renault
Red Electrica De Espana Cut To Sell VS Neutral at UBS; Added to UBS’s Least Preferred List
Air Liquide Raised to Overweight From Neutral at HSBC; PT Raised to Eu114 VS Eu98 at HSBC
Linde Raised To Overweight From Neutral at HSBC; PT Raised to Eu154 From Eu141 at HSBC
Syngenta Raised To Overweight From Neutral at HSBC; PT Raised to Chf400 From Chf340 at HSBC
Clariant PT Raised to Chf12.10 From Chf11.50 at HSBC
Givaudan Raised To Neutral From Underweight at HSBC; PT Raised to Chf930 VS Chf880 at HSBC
Croda PT Raised to 2,500p VS 2,375p at HSBC, Stays Neutral
Umicore PT Raised to Eu43 VS Eu39 at HSBC, Stays Neutral
Arkema Cut To Neutral From Overweight at HSBC
Akzo Nobel Cut To Neutral From Overweight at HSBC; PT Raised to Eu50 From Eu47 at HSBC
BASF Cut to Neutral From Overweight at HSBC; PT Raised to Eu71 VS Eu68 at HSBC
Johnson Matthey Cut To Neutral From Overweight at HSBC
Bollore Sells Channels to Vivendi for 22.4m Vivendi Shares
Kabel Deutschland Sees Tele Columbus Antitrust Ruling by January
Reed Elsevier Plc Buys Back 650k Shrs at GBp597.7972
Vodafone’s Reported Growth May Rise Over 150bps: Morgan Stanley
Telecom Italia PT Raised to EU0.82 at Goldman; Kept at Neutral
BMW to Hire 1,050 New Employees for Leipzig
Daimler’s Mercedes Brand Won’t Expand Below Compact Segment
Renault Aims for 8% of Brazil, Russian Markets by 2013-2014. To ‘Refocus’ Operations in France, COO Tavares Says
Swatch’s Longines Revenue to Exceed CHF1 Billion
Danone Cut to Equalweight from Overweight at Barclays
Air France Raised to Buy VS Neutral at UBS
H&M PT Cut 2% to Sek195 at Exane; Kept at Underperform
Tesco PT Raised to 390p VS 360p at HSBC, Stays Overweight
Adidas PT Raised 7% to Eu80 at Exane; Kept at Outperform
Econocom Agrees to Buy Spanish Virtualization Company Ermestel
Rezidor Hotel Group Confident in Route 2015 Strategy Plan: CEO
D’Ieteren Spends EU1.09m on Stock Buybacks
Aer Lingus, Dublin Airport SIPTU Union Members Defer Protest
Banco de Valencia to Shed Up to 485 Jobs to ‘Guarantee Future
Intercell Gets U.S. FDA Orphan Status for Vaccine in Children
Phoenix IT Group Merger Talk in U.K. Newspapers
Evotec, Aspireo in Advisory Agreement to Develop Somatoprim
Telekom Austria May Replace CFO Tschuden With Mayerhofer
DIASORIN Deputy Chairman Boniolo Sold Diasorin Shrs for EU8.2m
FCC to Invest at Least $90 Million in Cementos
Tarsus Rated New Add At Numis, PT 202p
Vossloh PT Raised to Eu71 VS Eu62 at Berenberg; Kept at Hold
Krones Raised To Buy From Hold at Berenberg
Shaftesbury Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 652p
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