12.06.12 – Not much except some interesting upgrades in the Equities section (Gemalto, Ingenico, Legrand, Fresenius)…

Bonjour,

Europe set for flattish start after Wall St closed sharply lower as initial excitement re Spanish bailout worse off and focus returned to Greek elections this weekend. S&P say Spain’s funding request has no immediate effect on its ratings on the country. IMF says Yen is overvalued and BoJ should add stimulus. Macro eyes on UK April industrial output figs and OPEC Jun oil market report.

 

AFTER MARKETS

(from LCM NY) Stocks briefly saw green to start the session but quickly surrendered those gains and closed out the day lower. The absolute declines Mon don’t accurately reveal the extent of the weakness – the SP futures hit an overnight high of ~1342 before finishing under 1302 (a ~40 pt/~3% swing). Flows were relatively quiet all session, even when the weakness

picked up into the afternoon. Volumes were on the muted side (they picked up a touch in the final hours but not by much).

The big themes for Mon were the Spanish bank deal (the EU100B helped provide an early lift but the details, or lack thereof, underwhelmed), the implications of Spain’s bank aid for Greece (was Syriza’s hand strengthened?), and AAPL (the WWDC was exactly inline w/the latest press reports and that was kind of the problem). The main driver of the poor US action though was really (as usual) Europe – European markets saw a dramatic reverse from their opening levels (in particular sovereign yields).

CURRENT THEMES

On Apple
Many will be disappointed by the lack of news on the new iPhone 5, the Apple TV or a new iMac. New products include updated versions of the macbook Air, the Macbook Pro a new new MacBook Pro which is exactly what Macheads have been asking for! This new machine is amazing and expensive. It blends together the best screen, the top processors in thinner body. I already have too many apple products to buy this now, but it’s a killer.

And on the updated software, it’s what was expected with further integration of Twitter and Facebook (not sure about this…).

What we should remember is that Apple continues to focus on the user and not the computer capabitilities.

On Europe
(FT: http://on.ft.com/MoOdEK). Barroso called for a EU banking Union as early as next year with a single cross border supervisor. The plan would also need to include a EU FDIC and a “rescue fund paid for by levies on finacnial instituions”. But the UK already says it doesn’t want to part of it (I understand…). So another day, another plan and we’ll hear more about this at the end of the month. It could be positive if it includes further fiscal integration.

BUT, for now, the most important things are the Greek Elections and some clarity on the Spanish banks bailout and the subordination. And is Italy the next one to fall???

OTHER STUFF

What’s Your Workout? A Profile of Kevin Skelton, Investment Banker and Longtime Surfer – WSJ.com http://on.wsj.com/Kzcq74

EUROPEAN EQUITIES

FINANCIALS
Morgan Stanley’s Browne will Head British Bankers’ Association
– HSBC
hires Matias Santa Cruz from UBS to head Brazilian equity capital market operations; Names Thomas Hilboldt as Asia Pacific Oil, Gas Research Head
– Banco Sabadell doesn’t plan to use European bailout funds, Chairman Josep Oliu says
Credit Suisse Cut to Sell vs Hold at SocGen, PT SF15.4
– Deutsche Bank Raised to Buy vs Hold at SocGen, PT EU36
– HSBC PT Raised to 650p vs 620p at Morgan Stanley

INDUSTRIAL/MINERS/SERVICES
– VOLKSWAGEN says it plans to raise its China capacity to 4 mln units by 2018
– Glencore
’s operating license for tin and zinc mine may be revoked by Bolivia, says Reuters
– Lafarge targets Eu1.3 Bln of cost cuts 2012 to 2015; announces 2012-2015 plan to generate at least EU1.75b Ebitda for the 4yrs; CEO says dividend increase may come as earnings grow
– Audi forecasts it will sell more than 1.4 million cars this year after reporting highest May sales ever
– Ryanair Cut to ‘Neutral’ From ‘Overweight’ at HSBC, PT EU4
– Air France-KLM Rated New ‘Overweight’ at HSBC, PT EU5
– Legrand Initiated at Buy at Berenberg; PT EU30

UTILITIES/OIL/HEALTHCARE/CHEMICALS
– Norway Union sees oil strike cost amounts to NK30m per day
– Sanofi’s Lantus leads to no higher heart, cancer risk in study;
– GLAXOSMITHKLINE’s company Stiefel will assume responsibility for development, manufacturing, commercialization, distribution of Toctino (alitretinoin); Buys 1.6m Shares at Prices Ranging from 1,435-1,456p/Shr
RWE’s Niederaussem-H Coal plant in Germany has unplanned halt
– Repsol andCaixa Holdingare studying plans to reduce their stakes in Gas Natural SDG SA, Bloomberg reported
– Royal Dutch Shell Buys Back 1m Class B Shares
– E.ON Raised to Buy vs Neutral at UBS; May Re-Rate in 2H
– Fresenius Medical Care Added to UBS’s Most Preferred List

TMT
– TECHNICOLOR, after it rejected higher bid over language, is still negotiating with JPM’s One Equity Partners, WSJ says
– BSkyB Upgraded to Overweight from Equalweight at Morgan Stanley
– GEMALTO Rated New Overweight at Barclays, PT set at EU60
– INGENICO Rated New Overweight at Barclays, PT set at EU40

RETAIL/CONSUMER/LUXURY
– Remy Cointreau FY Current Op. Profit EU208m vs. Est EU203m ; Current oper. margin, which included a further increase in marketing investment, was 20.2%
– Pernod said current CEO of The Absolut Co., will take over as Chairman, CEO of Martell Mumm Perrier-Jouet Oct. 1 when Lionel Breton retires
Buy AB-InBev, Has Complelling Valuation, Citi Says

SMALL/MIDCAPS
– Impregilo Nominates Palenzona as New Chairman
– Devgen NV
says one of its pipeline hybrid-rice products ranked first for grain yield per hectare in Philippine government trials
– GIMV sells the majority stake in ICT service provider OGD
– Austrian Post Rated New ‘Neutral’ at HSBC; PT EU29.30
– PostNL
Rated New ‘Overweight’ at HSBC, PT EU3.60
– Easyjet Cut to ‘Neutral’ From ‘Overweight’ at HSBC, PT GBP5.30
– Grafton Group Initiated at Buy at Jefferies; PT EU3.5; Raised to Neutral vs Sell at Citi
Pace Initiated at Buy at Jefferies; PT 148.00p
– Hera Rated New Buy at Citi
– MONITISE Rated New Overweight at Barclays, PT set at 50p
– Amlin Upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank
– Brunello Cucinelli Rated New Neutral at Mediobanca; PT EU11.05
– Genel Energy Rated New Buy at UBS, PT 850p
– Brait Cut to Neutral vs Buy at Citi

Max Kamir

Louis Capital Markets UK,LLP
Authorised and regulated by the FSA and Banque de France
39-41 rue Cambon
75001 Paris

T +33 (0)1 53 45 10 74
E mkamir
I http://www.louiscapital.com

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