07.06.12 – On China (good), the markets (lost) and the Fed (bad). MS on Spain (and football).

Buenos Dias,

Markets to open down on Bernanke’s comments stating the Fed is still in “Wait and See” approach and the news that strikes in Greece on the 16th and 17th of June may hurt the elections. Fitch downgraded Spain to BBB and Rajoy is looking for a solution to finance the Banks. Macro eyes on the Greek Q1 GDP, German trade balance for April, UK PPI and US trade balance.

CURRENT THEMES

With the surprising Chinese rate cuts, the investors focus could help commodities and EM equities. It also signals that the Chinese economic data for May is still weak.

On the Markets
Stocks spent most of the day in the green but saw a mild sell-off during the last ~60 min of the day and finished essentially unchanged (Bernanke’s less-dovish-than-expected tone set the tone for the day). There were several moving pieces and market drivers but most of them occurred before 10amET (China rate cut, Bernanke testimony) and the bulk of the day was very quiet, slow, and largely sideways (other than the last hour). Sentiment is more confused than outright positive or negative for the near-term – people still seem cautious on the broader macro backdrop (b/c of policy paralysis and slowing growth) but there is an intense fear of upside “headline” risk.
DXY finished near its lows of the day (dn. ~0.25%). Gold ended the day near its lows of the session (down ~2% at $1,591.10) following the sell-off on Bernanke’s comments which were not as dovish as expected.

On the Fed
– Characterized current growth as “moderate”—consistent with Vice Chair Yellen’s remarks last night as well as the FOMC’s latest post-meeting statement—and noted “significant downside risks to the outlook”.
– Unlike recent comments from Vice Chair Yellen and New York Fed President Dudley, Chairman Bernanke’s comments did not include a list of possible easing options.
– Labor Data: Bernanke said that some of the slowing “may have been exaggerated by issues related to seasonal adjustment and the unusually warm weather this past winter”.
– Any policy action/signal might come at June 20 FOMC (At the very earliest and depending on market stress) but more likely in July (next ECB meeting July 5).

“Wait-and-see” mode ahead of the “big 4” June catalysts: 1) Greece elections June 17; 2) FOMC meeting June 20; 3) EU Leaders Summit June 28-29; 4) Spain – slew of catalysts coming up, no formal dates for all of them (IMF assessment, bank audit, bank aid package, etc).

OTHER STUFF

Europe’s Banking Union ‘Non-Solution’ | ZeroHedge http://bit.ly/KSN7Bu (3 minutes video).

Europe’s banks: Slouching towards a banking union | The Economist http://econ.st/LcIUp9

Hollande’s first step is a faux pas – FT.com http://on.ft.com/LhBCCq

STRATEGY

GS (Wilson) Global Markets Views
Squeezed by Policy
Interesting comment in the first paragraph… the “market focus in June may shift from the data damage towards policy repsonses in both the US and Europe – a process that has already begun over the last couple of days.”

GS (Garzarelli) Global Markets Daily: Euro ‘Vision’
(copied/pasted)
ECB’s Draghi reiterates his call for a policy ‘vision’ of the Euro area’s future.
Concrete policy steps are unlikely any time soon along key dimensions.
But a broader political consensus could nonetheless reduce EMU ‘break-up’ risk.
Front-dated peripheral spreads should tighten, long-term German debt sell off more.
We would view an EFSF loan to Spain to support bank recapitalization as a positive.
US and Australian bonds continue to rank as very expensive on our metrics.

MS (Antonucci) European Football and the Financial Crisis
Spain in the Spotlight
MS hopes it will be Spain that will win. ABN has a piece out too hoping France will win and not a non European country. More seriously, this very short piece focuses on the different European solutions for a banking recap directly by the EFSF or the ESM or to the FROB which is just a transfer from private sector leverage to public sector leverage.
The piece also looks at the short term negative factors:
1. deepening recession (gdp contraction)
2. further fall in house prices (an extra 25%)
3. more indebted than you think
and some long term positive factors:
1. improved institutional framework
2. structural reforms and political stability
3. export potential

EUROPEAN EQUITIES

 

FINANCIALS
– EC pushes Greece to wind down some banks, Reuters Reports
U.K. Banks are among the least profitable in the world, says the Telegraph
– HSBC asks occupiers to leave its Hong Kong premises
– Barclays Asset-Sales Program Hampered by Eurozone Crisis, says FT
Banco Santander’s Chairman asked Brazilian President to let Banco do Brasil buy 10% stake in Spanish lender
– GENERALI is looking to buy 26% stake in Reliance General an Indian co., says Bloomberg

INDUSTRIAL/MINERS/SERVICES
– Fraport may sell its 10% New Delhi airport stake and decided to shut India operation this month, Times Says
– BMW
Brilliance Automotive Ltd., BMW’s China joint venture, will start taking orders for five models of the new generation stretched 3-series today, says Bloomberg
– BHP Billiton
Profit Ests. Downgraded at BofA-Merrill Lynch
Buy Reed Elsevier, May Rally up to Interims, Berenberg Says; PT 650p
– HeidelbergCement is attractively priced, ING Says After Roadshow; Reiterates buy, PT EU49
– Vopak Initiated at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT EU60
Saint-Gobain Significantly Undervalued Longer Term, Jefferies; Reiterates buy, PT EU50
– Sandvik Set as Top Pick in EU Capital Goods Sector at Bernstein

UTILITIES/OIL/HEALTHCARE/CHEMICALS
– U.K. plans to shut nuclear reprocessing plant
– Novo Nordisk says the FDA has extended the regulatory review period for insulin degludec to Oct. 29
– Vertex says Kalydeco showed lung function improvement
– Veolia Environnement
Initiated at Overweight at Barclays; PT EU12.5
– Suez Environnement Initiated at Equalweight at Barclays; PT EU10
– Novozymes Cut To Neutral From Buy at Goldman Sachs
– Chr Hansen Cut To Neutral From Buy at Goldman Sachs

TMT
– Alcatel has lost market share in Europe
– France Telecom agreed to cut prices for roaming text messages, Les Echos Says
– Havas Cut to Equalweight from Overweight at Barclays
– Ziggo Initiating at Outperform at Exane; PT at EU29

RETAIL/CONSUMER/LUXURY
– WPP’s shareholder advisory group questions the independence its compensation committee’s chairman, reports Bloomberg
– Unilever recalls 381,288 Keratin Hair Kits after complaints
– MARKS & SPENCER
will be opening banks inside their stores starting next month, Bloomberg says
– Diageo
buys Cabin Fever Maple Flavored Whisky
– Casino PT Cut to EU78 vs EU84 at Morgan Stanley
– H&M Cut to Sell vs Hold at SocGen, PT SK197
– Kerry Group PT Raised to EU40 From EU35 at Berenberg

SMALL/MIDCAPS
– Faiveley Transport FY Net EU47.4m vs est. EU57m; FY rev. EU900.5m vs est. EU900.7m.
– William Hill recommended for licensing by Nevada Gaming Control Board voted unanimously for approval at hearing in Carson City
– LOGITECH
sees restructuring charges of about $35m to cut annual operating costs of about $80m
– Zehnder will replace its deputy chairman group executive committee in H2 2014 with Berchtold

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