RCUBE is a tad more bullish. The Fed is somewhat more hawkish. Draghi wants a growth compact. And a lot of results.

Bonjour,

Europe set for slightly better start. Asia advanced for a second day as Fed made no changes to policy+maintained accomodative stance. European newsflow today dominated by raft of earnings.

CURRENT THEMES

On the Fed
The current policy is “being in approximately in the right place at this point” according to Bernanke. He stressed that the Fed could do more assets purchases and will keep the rates low. The comments on the economy itself were however more hawkish than could be expected as “tolerating higher inflation would be reckless”. Also the Summary of Economy Projections showed a positive path for unemployement with a forecast of 7.8-8% in 4Q12 down from 8.2-8.5% at the January meeting.

On Europe
Things are not OK yet, but reading the press and economics comments, European politicians may move to a more growth oriented strategy. Don’t get me wrong, it’s still really ugly out there and we’re not out of the woods. Spain, Italy and France face a huge wall of economic worries, recession, escalating debt and plunginf deficits… But more and more advocate growth enhancing measures. Obviously both French candidates promise such measures (but they’re candidates) and ECB President Draghi is also pushing in this direction with stronger conviction. So despite worsening data all over Europe (bar Germany) the fiscal objectives may be replaced by growth objectives.

On this subject, read: “Draghi calls for Europe ‘growth compact'”: http://on.ft.com/I2W1s4

On Central Banks
The RBNZ left its rates unchanged at 2.50% in line with expectations.

STRATEGY

RCUBE MACRO PORTFOLIO
Q1 ECB Lending Survey.

The latest ECB lending survey shows a better lending behaviour. This is in addition to the better AFTE (French corporate treasurers association) last week and also some easing in the EM world. One big caveat is taht the survey itself was conducted during the market top and before Spanish spreads wen’t up.
But this is more positive data and it leads the RCUBE team to a more bullish stance as they add to their selling position on the iTraxx Xover.

OTHER STUFF

SchizoFEDia | ZeroHedge http://bit.ly/IFpt8u

Get Ready For An Election Year Rally! – Business Insider http://read.bi/Jp5ahm

EUROPEAN EQUITIES

FINANCIALS
– Deutsche Bank 1Q net rev. EU9.19b ; 1Q net EU1.4B vs est. EU1.56B; 1Q pretax EU1.9b vs est. EU2.38b; 1Q NII EU4.19b vs est. EU4.4b; GTB pretax EU340m vs est. EU346m; PBC pretax EU413m vs estµ. EU466m; AWM pretax EU142m vs est. EU198m; 1Q debt trading EU3.39b vs est. EU3.12b; 1Q equity trading EU726m vs est. EU750m; CT1 ratio 10% end March; 1Q EPS EU1.44
– Handelsbanken 1Q net SK3.35b vs est. SK3.24b ; 1Q core tier 1 ratio 16.4% vs 14.5%; 1Q EPS SK5.36 vs est. SK5.21; 1Q net interest income SK6.56b vs SK5.51b; 1Q net fee and commission income SK1.89b vs SK1.94b; 1Q loan losses SK291m vs SK244m

INDUSTRIAL/MINERS/SERVICES
– RENAULT 1Q sales EU9.54b vs est. EU9.45b; unit sales fell 7.9%; reiterates its plan for FY cash flow and its outlook for France and EU markets; Feb. 15 FY outlook: 2012 automotive FCF, with capex and R&D <9% of sales, EU market -3%-4%, France -7%-8%
– Volvo 1Q op profit SK6.24b vs est. SK5.65b; 1Q sales SK78.8b vs est. SK72.2b; 1Q net SK4.01b vs est. SK3.53b; 1Q op margin 7.9%; truck deliveries 56,112 trucks; sees 2012 European truck mkt of 230,000 units, Nth. American mkt forecast unchanged at 250,000 units; sees weakening trend for Volvo buses and Penta divisions
– Geberit 1Q rev. SF568.9m vs est. SF556m; Ebit SF130.5m vs est SF122m; net SF111.7m; result in line with co.’s expectations; management “confident” of achieving “solid” result for 2012; sticks to forecast, sees European residential construction stronger, slow recovery in US residential construction, China non-residential construction appears to be robust
– Randstad 1Q rev. EU4.15b vs EU3.70bvs est. EU4.02b; 1Q Ebita EU104m; 1Q net EU28.8m vs est. EU19.2m; says 1Q trends continued into April; raising marketing investments going into 2Q; sees limited cost base rise vs 1Q as result; says it faces near future with confidence
– SAFRAN 1Q rev. EU3.11b vs est. EU3.08b; 1Q segment rev. growth y/y: Aerospace Propulsion +11.4%, Aircraft Equipment +21.1%, Defence +5.1%, Security +42.5%; 2012 outlook: expects rev. to increase by ~10%; Bloomberg est. 12.4% growth; expects recurring op income expected to rise by ~20%; expects FCF to represent about third of recurring op income taking into account expected increase in R&D and capex
– Fiat Industrial PT Raised to EU9.5 vs EU8.5 at Citi, Kept at Buy; PT Raised to EU9.5 vs EU9 at Deutsche Bank, Kept at Buy; kept at Neutral at JPMorgan on net debt increase; Mediobanca sees consensus increase: lifts 2012 EPS by 2.7% adding to FY trading profit est. the EU73m beat on 1Q, Outperform rating, PT at EU9.8 unchanged
– Vopak Upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Exane
– MTU Aero PT Raised 22% to EU60 at Barclays, Stays Equalweight
– Safran Upgraded to Overweight from Equalweight at Morgan Stanley; PT increased to EU32 vs EU28
– ABB Cut to Neutral From Overweight at JPMorgan, PT SF20 vs SF21

UTILITIES/OIL/HEALTHCARE/CHEMICALS
– UCB 1Q rev.EU877m in line with its expectations; rev. growth driven by Cimzia, Vimpat and Neupro, combined sales of EU200m, up 50%; net sales of Kepppra fell 17%; March 2 co. said sees 2012 Ebitda ex-items EU630m- EU660m, adj. EPS EU1.60-EU1.70, rev. EU3.1b
– Bayer 1Q rev. EU10.06b vs est. EU9.74b; 1Q Ebitda ex-items EU2.44b vs est. EU2.24b ; core EPS EU1.68 vs est. EU1.48 ; Ebitda Ex-Items Beats; reaffirms 2012 forecast

– AstraZeneca signs a deal with Medicines Co. on Brilinta tablets
– Bayer unit sued Watson for allegedly infringing 2 US patents for Staxyn
– BASF acquires Novolyte Technologies
– Abertis acquires 41.4 million of its own shares from ACS for EU11.21/share
– ENEL upgraded to Neutral vs Sell at UBS, PT cut to EU2.65 vs EU2.7
– SNAM PT raised to EU4.2 vs EU4 at UBS; Kept at Buy

TMT
– Alcatel 1Q rev EU3.206b vs est. EU3.24b; 1Q sales EU3.21b vs est. EU3.24b; 1Q operating loss EU221m vs est. loss EU118.6m; 1Q gross margin 30.3% vs est. 33.8% ; 1Q adj. EPS EU0.16 vs est. loss per shr. EU0.06; 1Q net cash EU753m vs net cash EU106m Y/y, says cash control is good; margins impacted by lower volume and poor mix; reiterates guidance of FY adj. operating margin >2011 margin of 3.9%; expects to have better visibility at end of this quarter; says as 2012 continues, co. will maintain strict financial discipline; CFO says that 1Q will be a low point for margins; 2Q and 2H to improve
– DASSAULT SYSTEMES 1Q rev. EU462.4m vs est. EU444m; 1Q non-IFRS EPS 71c vs est. 69c; 1Q EPS 58c vs est. 57c ; 1Q license rev. rose to EU419.9m; to buy Gemcon Software for about $360m; proposes div. of 70c/shr
– GEMALTO 1Q sales rise 9% to EU483m; reaffirms 2012 guidance for increased sales, profit from operations
– Mobistar 1Q sales EU399.5m vs est. EU390.7m; 1Q Ebitda EU113.1m vs est. EU118m; 1Q net income EU38.2m vs est. EU46.1m; says January’s MTR cuts negatively impacted sales by EU11.6m and Ebitda by EU5.6m; retains FY guidance of net income in range of EU170-195m.

– Buy ArcelorMittal, debt concern overdone, BofA says
– Mediaset PT Cut to EU1.3 vs EU1.8 at Citi; Kept at Sell
– Mediaset ESPANA PT Cut to EU3 vs EU3.4 at Citi; Kept at Sell

RETAIL/CONSUMER/LUXURY
– PPR 1Q sales EU3.26b vs est. EU3.15b; 1Q overall luxury comparable sales up 17.8% vs est. +15%; luxury unit had double-digit growth in all regions, emerging markets +20%; says that Gucci sales in Europe were sustained by tourist flow; it has no intention to divest Puma
– Pernod Ricard 3Q organic sales up 3% vs est. up 0.4%; total 3Q sales up 5% to EU1.7b, strategic brands had “sustained” growth, increase in relative significance of Premium portfolio; 3Q France organic sales -42%; Europe ex-France +7%, Americas +1%, Asia/rest of world +10%; confirms FY targets
– Hugo Boss 1Q rev. EU606.8m vs est. EU598.6m; 1Q adj. Ebit EU129.4m vsest. EU132.2m ; 1Q adj. net EU95.2m vs est. EU94.5m; confirms FY outlook, sees 10% rev. growth in 2012
– L’OREAL to buy Cadum for €200 million, says Le Figaro
– UK general retail Cut to In-Line vs Attractive at Morgan Stanley
– Havas PT raised 13% to EU4.8 after 1Q update at Barclays; Kept at Overweight

SMALL/MIDCAPS
– Logitech reports 4Q sales $532m vs est. $528.8m; 4Q net income $28m vs est. $12.4m; 4Q EPS 17c vs est. 7.2c; it is cutting management layers to save $80 million annually
– Rhoen-Klinikum 1Q rev. EU682.3m vs est. EU674.5m; 1Q Ebit EU48.5m vs est. EU48.2m; 1Q net income EU34.1m vs est. EU32.7m; April 12 co. affirmed 2012 targets: sees Ebitda EU350m, net income EU145m, may fluctuate +/- 5%; rev. range EU2.85b, may fluctuate +/- 2.5 %
– STRAUMANN 1Q rev. SF185m vs est. SF188.6m; confirms FY forecast; sees no added currency headwind in 2012; expects “low-single digit percentage” growth in its global markets in 2012
– Grenkeleasing 1Q consolidated net profit EU9.4m; net interest income EU25.2m; 1Q new business rises 24.5% to EU238.9m; on track for 2012, sticking to forecast
– Wirecard 1Q rev. EU83.1m; 1Q Ebitda EU23.1m; sees 2012 Ebitda of EU103m-EU115m
– Aixtron 1Q sales EU42m vs est. EU51.6m; 1Q gross margin 25% vs est. 36.4%; 1Q loss before interest & tax EU18.3m vs est. loss EU11.3m; co. says loss reflects current demand trough; unable to give full FY guidance due to low order visibility, although expects to be Ebit positive in FY
– Vossloh 1Q rev. EU255.7m vsest. EU257.8m; 1Q Ebit EU10.2m vs est. EU14.9m; 1Q net EU4.2m; 1Q EPS 35c; reiterates 2012 and 2013 targets
– Qiagen 1Q adj. EPS 23c vs est. 20c
– TKH raises its bid price for Augusta to EU23/share from EU21
– Carphone Warehouse Raised to Equalweight vs Underweightat Morgan Stanley
– Mersen Upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Exane
– Ipsos PT Cut 6% to EU29 at Exane; Kept at Outperform

Max Kamir

Louis Capital Markets UK,LLP
Authorised and regulated by the FSA and Banque de France
39-41 rue Cambon
75001 Paris

T +33 (0)1 53 45 10 74
E mkamir
I http://www.louiscapital.com

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s